Shipping diverted from New Orleans is expected to benefit Brunswick.

By WALTER C. JONES, The Times-Union

May 25, 2006

ATLANTA -- Southeast Georgia job creation continues to outpace the rest of the state, and a forecast released Wednesday suggests that's not going to change.

The number of workers in Brunswick grew 4.1 percent during the first three months of the year, better than any other metropolitan area in Georgia and roughly twice the state's overall growth rate of 2.1 percent.

Brunswick's rate will moderate a tad to 3.7 percent for all of 2006, according to the Georgia State University Economic Forecasting Center. Only Savannah is expected to do as well, with the rest of the state's payroll expanding just 2.2 percent.

"Looking ahead, Brunswick's shipping business is sure to benefit from cargo diverted away from New Orleans and the ongoing project to deepen the shipping channel to handle the world's largest ships," writes economist Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Forecasting Center.

The Georgia Ports Authority reports that shipments through Brunswick increased 60 percent year to year during February.

The region also has benefited from a healthy tourism industry.

"The tourism sector created over 35,000 jobs [statewide] in the last three years and is on track to add the same number over the next three years," Dhawan said.

This week, the Travel Industry Association estimated the total impact of tourism on the state's 2005 economy at $28.2 billion, up $2 billion from 2004.

The Georgia Department of Economic Development got a $500,000 increase in its budget for tourism marketing from the session of the General Assembly that ended in March.

"We expect continued increases in [tourists'] expenditures and visitation as we implement our 'Put Your Dreams in Motion' marketing campaign," said Dan Rowe, the department's deputy commissioner for tourism.

Overall for the state, the Economic Center's forecast is positive but cautious. News of layoffs at Atlanta-area automobile plants and with BellSouth combining with Delta Air Lines' troubles to leave a few clouds overhead.

"Delta narrowly avoided a major disaster when it came to a tentative agreement with its pilots," Dhawan said. "However, high oil prices are still the wild card that could wreck the best-laid plan for the company's recovery."

He warned of further layoffs at the giant air carrier. If it folded completely, it could cripple air travel throughout the Southeast, and the industries such as tourism that depend on it, according to the economic analysis.

Another cloud on the horizon is rising interest rates, which could slow the pace of new-housing construction.